CrisisWatch Risk Alerts:

Cote d’Ivorie
DR Congo
Somalia

Deteriorated Situations:
Afghanistan
Bolivia
Chad
Georgia
Kyrgystan
Thailand
Turkmenistan

Improved Situations:

Burundi

CrisisWatch Updates are produced by the International Crisis Group and published with the expressed permission of ICG.

Risk Alerts:

Cote d’Ivorie

Concern mounting as UN-sponsored 12-month extension of President Gbagbo’s mandate approaches expiry 31 October. Foreign diplomats monitoring peace plan proposed increasing PM Banny’s powers vis a vis Gbagbo. UN Security Council to discuss proposals 17 October, while ECOWAS and AU to suggest new poll date to UNSC. Gbagbo boycotted meeting on sidelines of UN General Assembly 20 September where AU-endorsed mediator Mbeki met rebel and opposition chiefs, regional leaders and UNSG Annan to break deadlock. Gbagbo dismissed UN peace process and vowed to present own solutions to AU Peace and Security Council. Banny government reconstituted largely intact after briefly resigning 6 September amid toxic waste scandal.

DR Congo

Tensions rose ahead of 29 October presidential run-off vote between President Kabila and Vice-President Bemba. Third- and fourth-placed finishers in 30 July poll, Antoine Gizenga and Nzanga Mobutu, pledged support for Kabila, while Bemba failed to secure alliance with influential Etienne Tshisekedi and his UDPS party, which boycotted first round. Following interventions by South African President Mbeki, EU foreign policy chief Solana and others, Kabila and Bemba met 13 September to discuss confinement of army and militia to barracks during electoral period. Bemba and Kabila representatives signed agreement 25 September to make Kinshasa weapons-free zone during and immediately after vote. Bemba-owned media outlets destroyed in 19 September arson attack, leading to demonstrations and mass arrests. First democratically elected parliament in 20 years inaugurated 22 September, with Kabila’s AMP alliance holding biggest share of seats (approx 300 of 500). Army head in Ituri claimed militias belonging to Front des Nationalistes et Integrationnistes rearming around Bunia. In North Kivu, dissident General Laurent Nkunda warned that deployment of troops to territory under his control would trigger violence. MONUC mandate extended by UN Security Council until 15 February 2007.

Somalia

Progress early in month between Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) largely negated by assassination attempt on president, UIC capture of Kismayo and Ethiopian troop deployment to Baidoa. President Yusuf survived country’s first suicide bombing 18 September, but 12 others killed, including Yusuf’s brother. UIC extended control over southern Somalia by taking Kismayo port 25 September; angry protests against Courts’ burning of Somali flag there led to shooting and death of 3. In response TFG again called for international arms embargo to be lifted to enable it to train security forces to protect its citizens. Hundreds of Ethiopian troops sighted in Baidoa in late September; believed to be in reaction to UIC capture of Kismayo, and part of continued Ethiopian effort to support TFG. Earlier in month, TFG and UIC had pledged commitment to 22 June agreement on mutual recognition, agreed in principle to unify armed groups and not seek help from foreign powers, and committed to work towards power-sharing arrangement at 30 October talks. IGAD proposal to send peacekeepers, strongly opposed by UIC, endorsed by AU 13 September.

Deteriorating Situations

Afghanistan

Major NATO-led offensive brought heavy fighting in southern provinces, while incidence of suicide bombings spiked. NATO claimed 1,000 Taliban fighters killed in south as part of Operation Medusa, while thousands of families displaced in Panjwayi and Zhari districts outside Kandahar. Separate major offensive, Operation Mountain Fury, launched by U.S. and local security forces in eastern provinces, where a U.S. report noted 2 to 3-fold rise in attacks in September after Pakistani deal with North Waziristan militants. Assassinations claimed prominent figures including governor of Paktia and provincial head of women’s ministry in Kandahar. President Musharraf and Karzai traded accusations about source of increasing violence, later met with President Bush in Washington: no specific agreements reached beyond possibility of cross-border jirgas. U.S. said 12,000 troops in east would be placed under NATO command; 10,000 more remain under U.S. command.

Bolivia

Potential for significant unrest as President Morales’ reforms hit stumbling blocks and rifts emerged in Constituent Assembly. Santa Cruz and regional allies walked out of Assembly 1 September after Morales’ MAS party imposed simple majority instead of two-thirds vote as threshold for making changes. Further evidence of regional divide 22 September: farmers and trade unionists in Santa Cruz, angered by opposition to land reform program, blocked roads. VP Garcia raised stakes in speech to country’s peasants that included veritable call to arms in defense of “revolutionary government”. Full nationalisation of hydrocarbons industry continued to stall: minister in charge resigned after crisis in relations with Brazil prompted by granting state-owned YPFB control over 2 refineries owned by Brazilian gas giant Petrobras; new minister expected to take more conciliatory tone.

Chad

Fighting escalated between government and rebels in eastern Chad allied to Mahamat Nour’s FUCD. Government reportedly resumed offensive 10 September, ending lull that had prevailed since rebels expelled from N’Djamena in April. Army chief claimed 168 rebels killed in major operation 13 September around Aram Kolle; FUCD claimed hundreds of soldiers killed in same operation. UN and aid agencies expressed concern about military build-up around Abeche.

Georgia

Tensions with Russia mounted after 4 Russian military officers detained by Georgian authorities for espionage 27 September. Russia suspended ongoing troop pullout from 2 Georgian bases 30 September, recalled ambassador and most diplomatic staff, halted issuance of visas, and asked UN Security Council to censure Tbilisi. President Saakashvili accused Russia in UN General Assembly speech of annexing Georgian conflict zones and perpetuating conflicts in. NATO invited Georgia to begin “Intensified Dialogue” on membership; move criticised by Russia. In South Ossetia, 3 Ossetians and 1 Georgian killed in exchange of fire 8 September. De facto South Ossetian president Kokoity announced independence referendum and presidential elections to be held 12 November; Joint Control Commission meeting cancelled. In Abkhazia, 1 civilian reportedly killed in clash between police and gunmen. 13 opposition activists charged for alleged coup plot; opposition said arrests political. Local elections due 5 October.

Kyrgystan

Relations between President Bakiev and parliament deteriorated further after apparent attempt to frame opposition leader MP Omurbek Tekebaev: arrested  Warsaw airport 6 September, but released after Polish court ruled heroin probably planted. Kyrgyz parliamentary probe alleged National Security Service (SNB) involvement; SNB Chairman Tabaldiev and  deputy, Bakiev’s brother Janybek, resigned. Assembly also declared formal alliance between President Bakiev and PM Kulov unconstitutional and suggested criminal case be opened against Janybek Bakiev. Opposition Asaba party and “For Reform!” movement held rally in southern Aksy district; movement threatened Bishkek demonstrations against Bakiev if no reforms by November. Alleged Islamic Movement of Turkestan leader Rasul Akhunov died after reportedly refusing to surrender to security forces 2 September; authorities later ruled he had heart attack during raid. Osh court released 4 suspected Akramiya members, including daughter of leader Akram Yuldash who Uzbekistan say masterminded 2005 Andijon uprising.

Thailand

PM Thaksin deposed 19 September in bloodless coup. Army generals led by General Sonthi Boonyaratkalin revoked 1997 constitution and severely limited freedoms of assembly and speech. Military ‘Council for Democratic Reform’ (CDR) appointed retired general Surayud Chulanont as interim prime minister 1 October and promised to hold elections within a year, but reserved control over security affairs and right to sack PM. CDR will appoint 250-member interim legislature and 2,000-strong “people’s assembly” which in turn will select 100-200 team to draft new constitution. U.S. called coup “U-turn” for democracy and suspended $24 million in military aid. Coup may turn out to be marginally positive for southern conflict: Thaksin’s rivalry with military had been key obstacle to effective management and Gen. Sonthi more receptive to recommendations of National Reconciliation Commission. Violence continued in south with 6 bombs detonated in economic hub of Hat Yai 16 September, killing 4.

Turkmenistan

Journalist and activist Ogulsapar Muradova died in prison; family reported head and neck injuries, disputing official “natural causes” verdict. Official obstruction and harassment of family condemned by international rights activists; UN expressed “grave concern.”

Improved Situations:

Burundi

FNL rebels signed surprise ceasefire agreement with government 7 September in Dar es Salaam. Deal seen as positive, but thought doubtful will hold given unrealistic 30-day deadline for demobilisation and lack of political incentives for FNL. Few rebels adhered to provisions requiring them to assemble at specified sites, saying government must first negotiate outstanding issues such as freeing of FNL prisoners and immunity for ex-combatants. Police clashed with splinter FNL Sindayigaya faction in Bubanza province 27 September. Domestic politics remained in turmoil as second most powerful member of CNDD-FDD ruling party, second Vice-President Alice Nzomukunda, resigned 6 September, accusing party leader Hussein Rajabu of human-rights violations, lying and corruption.

Archived Reports from prior months...

December 2005

Risk Alerts

Iraq

Insurgency intensified as approach of 15 December parliamentary elections prompted fears of major escalation. Wave of suicide bombings included twin blasts at Shiite mosques in Khanaqin, near Iranian border, killing 80 and car bomb outside hospital south of Baghdad killing 30. Gunmen dressed in Iraqi army uniforms shot dead prominent Sunni Arab tribal chief and 4 family members 23 November.  Escalation of violence coincided with opening of preparatory Iraqi reconciliation meeting run by Arab League in Cairo. Detainee abuse scandal emerged 13 November after U.S. troops found 173 prisoners, mostly Sunni Arabs and some reportedly tortured, in bunker in interior ministry building. U.S. military forces completed 17-day counter-insurgency operation in western province of Anbar near Syrian border, which left 139 insurgents and 10 marines dead. UN Security Council voted unanimously to extend mandate of U.S.-led multinational forces to end of 2006.1666 Coalition soldiers, including 1548 Americans, and thousands of Iraqis now killed by hostile fire since declared end of combat 1 May 2003.

Eritria/Ethiopia

Ethiopia/EritreaBorder tensions continued to rise with high concentrations of troops deployed on both sides. Ethiopian soldiers breached demilitarised zone, withdrawing 23 November. UN Security Council passed resolution threatening sanctions if sides failed to reduce troop numbers and if Eritrea refused to lift restrictions on UNMEE monitors, including ban on helicopter flights; also called on Ethiopia to respect boundary commission ruling on border demarcation, but did not threaten punishment. Eritrea dismissed resolution as biased.

Deteriorated Situations

Azerbaijan

Police used violence to break up peaceful rally in Baku 26 November. Hundreds injured, 24 detained. Around 10,000 protesting 6 November parliamentary elections that failed to meet OSCE and Council of Europe standards. Protest was latest in series of moves by opposition who claimed election fraudulent, also announced boycott of seats in parliament. Ruling New Azerbaijan Party (YAP) won overwhelmingly: preliminary results indicated YAP won 58 of 121 seats, supported by number of pro-government independents. Turnout low at 46.8%. Election Commission annulled results in 4 constituencies and 460 polling stations; 2 extra seats awarded to opposition. Government fired 7 officials for illegal interference in voting.

Bangladesh

Suspected Islamist militants intensified attacks on judiciary: at least 9 killed in Chittagong and Gazipur blasts 28 November, while 2 senior judges killed 14 November. Lawyers and judges held widespread protests against violence. General strike held by main opposition Awami League 24 November calling for government’s resignation. World Bank and other donors conditioned further aid on improved anti-corruption efforts and legislation aimed at improving government transparency. 

Chad

Chad Situation tense between government and army deserters calling themselves Rally for Change, National Unity and Democracy (SCUD). SCUD said possessed means to topple President Deby. President reshuffled top military posts after gunmen raided army bases in N’djamena 14 November. Chad accused Sudan of using deserters to help fight Darfur rebels and destabilise Chad, sparking accusation from Khartoum of Chadian support for Darfur rebels. Sudanese army claimed it clashed with deserters in Darfur.

Ethiopia

Opposition protests over disputed May elections sparked massive crackdown by security forces; dead. Over dead. Over 8,000 detainees later released after calls from U.S and EU, but as many as 3,000 remain in custody, including top opposition Coalition for Unity and Democracy party officials. PM Zenawi said opposition leaders and newspaper editors would face at least 46 treason charges for their role in protests, which carry the death penalty

Jordan

Iraqi suicide bombers launched 3 coordinated attacks on Western hotels in Amman 9 November, killing 60 and wounding over 115. Al Qaeda in Iraq, led by Jordanian-born militant al-Zarqawi, claimed attack retaliation for Jordanian assistance to U.S. in Iraq. Fourth would-be bomber detained by police. King Abdullah II dismissed government and top officials of royal court, including national security adviser. Former military intelligence officer and ambassador to Israel and Turkey Marouf Bakhit named PM, given strong mandate to fight Islamist militancy.

Sierra Leone

Tensions escalated between Vice President Berewa and opposition leader Margai, threatening political turmoil. Margai arrested on charges of provoking instability after his supporters reportedly harassed Berewa 21 November, later released on bail. Violent protests after arrest; situation somewhat defused upon Margai’s release. Media censorship continued but journalist Paul Kamara released 30 November. Anticorruption Commissioner Val Collier sacked; considered blow to commission’s independence. UN Security Council authorised UNMIL to arrest Charles Taylor and and transfer him to Sierra Leone Court if he returns to Liberia.  

Turkey

Situation in southeast deteriorated after claims state security services involved in 9 November bomb attack on Semdinli bookshop and drive-by shooting at crime scene. 3 gendarmerie officers and 1 ex-PKK militant detained. Several days of rioting over incident in Hakkari province, Istanbul and elsewhere. At least 5 killed in clashes with police. PM Erdogan visited Semdinli 21 November promising justice. Sporadic violence continued across Turkey, including bombing in Istanbul that killed 2.EU cautioned Turkey on freedom of speech after prosecution of several authors and academics.

Uganda

UgandaOpposition leader Kizza Besigye, seen as President Museveni’s main challenger in first multi-party polls March 2006, arrested 14 November soon after returning from exile: accused of treason, rape, terrorism and weapons offences. Arrest sparked worst riots in decades and strong police response; 1 killed, 57 arrested. 14 of Besigye’s co-accused granted bail, but returned to jail for fear of being killed outside court. Government banned public demonstrations 23 November prior to Besigye’s court appearance. Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) reportedly made overture for talks with government. LRA killed 23 in attacks in north Uganda and south Sudan, including aid worker. Sudan extended agreement allowing Ugandan troops to pursue LRA into Sudanese territory. Commanders of Ugandan and Sudanese forces as well as Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement agreed joint strategy to execute International Criminal Court arrest warrants against top LRA commanders.

Improved Situations

Bosnia-Herzogovina

Representatives of leading Bosnian parties agreed in principle - under heavy U.S. and EU pressure - to constitutional amendments strengthening central institutions of government. Declaration signed in Washington 22 November; many details still to be worked out. Agreement came day after Brussels authorised negotiations on Stabilisation and Association Agreement as step towards EU membership; expected to start by year-end. UN Security Council extended EU Stabilisation Force (EUFOR) mission for 12 months.

Macedonia

EU Commission recommended candidate status for Macedonia 9 November. Negotiations start date announcement expected at 15-16 December EU Summit. EU established EU Policy Advisory Team

Nepal

Landmark deal announced between 7 political parties and Maoist rebels 22 November: Maoists agreed to accept multi-party democracy, stop terrorising civilians and accept democratic process. Maoist chief Prachanda committed to “march ahead peacefully” into new political mainstream and work with political parties to end absolute powers of monarchy. Maoists’ 3-month unilateral ceasefire to end 2 December. 2 high-level Maoist commanders reportedly killed in 30 November aerial attack. India pressed King Gyanendra to restore multi-party democracy at South Asian regional summit. Supreme Court refused to block law banning criticism of king and barring private radio stations broadcasting news; thousands protested new law. FM radio station that rebroadcasted BBC interview with Prachanda raided by government but reopened after Supreme Court intervention.

January 2006

Risk Alerts

Ethiopia/Eritrea

Situation along border remained volatile. Tensions exacerbated after Eritrea ordered UN mission (UNMEE) troops from Canada, Europe and U.S. to leave 7 December. UN Security Council announced temporary evacuation of 180 UNMEE staff after Eritrean President Afewerki refused to meet UNSG envoy seeking to negotiate settlement. UN confirmed Ethiopia had moved some troops back from border 23 December, but neither side fully complied with November UN resolution calling for de-escalation. International Claims Commission ruled Eritrea started 1998 war and liable for damages caused to Ethiopia.

Prosecutors charged 131 jailed opposition leaders, reporters and aid workers with crimes ranging from treason to genocide, many carrying death penalty, in connection with November protests over disputed May elections. Donors to withhold $375 million in direct aid in response to crackdown on opposition. 3 Oromo students killed in police response to continued public unrest. Opposition Coalition for Unity and Democracy MPs ended boycott of parliament, called for dialogue, in attempt to resolve dispute with ruling party over elections and detention of leaders.

Nepal

Fears as CrisisWatch went to press that Maoists’ 2 January announcement ending unilateral ceasefire could lead to escalated fighting. Maoists said move response to government’s refusal to reciprocate and enter serious talks. King Gyanendra reshuffled cabinet for third time since seizing direct power in February. Thousands defied ban on protests, called on king to give up absolute power. Alliance of 7 main political parties called for general strike in Kathmandu to protest 16 December killing of 12 civilians by soldier in Nagarkot town and vowed, along with Maoists, to disrupt municipal elections due 8 February 2006. UNSG Annan repeated call for bilateral ceasefire and offer of UN assistance in peace process; EU presidency supported call.

Sri Lanka

Surge in violence in north and east raised fears of return to full-scale civil war: at least 46 killed, including 26 soldiers in 3 separate Jaffna landmine blasts, 13 sailors in ambush in northwest, and pro-rebel MP at Christmas mass in Batticaloa. Military delayed retaliation against LTTE assault, hoping condemnation by foreign donors will pressure Tigers into returning to ceasefire. In policy shift, newly elected President Rajapakse invited Norway to continue observer role. Government formally invited Tigers to restart peace talks and agreed to LTTE demand talks be held overseas; Japan offered to host. Over 900 detained by police in 31 December security sweep of capital in search for suicide bombers.

Deteriorating Situations

Bangladesh

Wave of suicide bombings that began in November continued to escalate tensions: over 11 killed, including 8 in northern Netrokona town 8 December. Police carried out raids, seizing explosives and arresting key personnel of banned groups Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen and Jagrata Muslim Janata Bangladesh. Opponents of minority Muslim Ahmadiyya community clashed with police during Dhaka march 23 December.

China (internal)

Rural unrest worsened as police opened fire on rioters in Guangdong province protesting land seizures for state projects; villagers claimed 20 killed. Trial began over similar June incident in Heibei province. UN rapporteur on torture accused officials of interfering with his investigation; stated torture in prisons widespread but in decline.

Chad

Security and relations with Sudan deteriorated as rebel group Rally for Democracy and Liberty attacked Chadian forces in Adre near Sudanese border 18 and 19 December, with estimates of over 100 killed. Chad and Sudan continued to trade accusations over support to each other’s rebel movements. Chad blamed Khartoum for clashes and declared “state of belligerence” against Sudan. President Deby faced increasing dissension within army and government, and defections from inner circle of advisers to new Zaghawa-dominated rebel movement SCUD.

Colombia

FARC carried out worst attack since Uribe elected, killing 37 in 2 attacks on security forces. Attacks came after government proposal for troop pullout from area in southwest in exchange for hostage/prisoner swap. Optimistic start to talks in Cuba between leftist ELN rebels and government, with commitment to further talks in January. AUC paramilitaries broke ceasefire with government in clash with ELN early December that killed 8. 2,000 more AUC members disarmed, raising total to 13,000; deadline for complete demobilisation of remaining 15,000 set for February. AUC leader called for 2 seats in Congress in return for disarming.

Egypt

Violence, arrests and reports police blocked access to polling stations marred final round of parliamentary elections: 12 killed, 130 injured in 7 December run-off vote. Ruling National Democratic Party won over 70% of parliamentary seats, while Muslim Brothers - despite official ban - won record 88 seats (19.7%). Runner-up in 2005 presidential election Ayman Nour sentenced to 5 years in jail for allegedly forging signatures to register opposition Ghad party. 23 killed as police stormed Sudanese refugee camp outside UN office to break up protest.

Israel-Occupied territories

Internal Fatah divisions intensified after problematic party primaries prompted faction headed by imprisoned Marwan Barghouti to present separate electoral list for 25 January general elections. Dispute resolved by negotiations but split and popular dissatisfaction allowed hardline Hamas to win major West Bank cities in mid-December local elections. Increasing likelihood January elections will be postponed: EU foreign policy chief Solana threatened to halt aid if Hamas wins. U.S. Congress called for ban on Hamas participation, while Israel announced intention to prevent Palestinians in East Jerusalem from voting. Security situation in Gaza deteriorated at end of month: 200 Palestinian police stormed government offices in Rafah 2 January and earlier temporarily closed border crossing with Egypt to protest government failure to fight lawlessness. Israel imposed buffer zone in northern Gaza in response to rocket fire; launched air strikes after Islamic Jihad suicide bomb in Netanya 5 December killed 5. Former PM Binyamin Netanyahu elected new leader of Likud. PM Ariel Sharon briefly hospitalised for minor stroke.

Lebanon

Anti-Syrian journalist and MP Gibran Tueni killed by car bomb 12 December, latest in series of political murders. Cabinet called for international probe into killings. In protest, 5 pro-Syrian Shiite ministers suspended participation in government, putting already fragile coalition in jeopardy. UN investigators presented second report into assassination of ex-PM Hariri, confirming Syrian officials key suspects. UN Security Council extended Hariri investigation by 6 months; asked UNSG Annan to look into expanding commission’s mandate to investigate other attacks on top Lebanese officials.

North Korea

Nuclear negotiations returned to impasse, erasing 5 months of apparent progress. Pyongyang announced intention to resume work on 2 light-water reactors previously developed under now defunct Agreed Framework and abandoned multinational KEDO project to provide reactors in exchange for freeze on weapons programs. New U.S. ambassador to South publicly labelled North “criminal regime”. UN General Assembly adopted first-ever resolution condemning NK’s widespread human rights violations.

Pakistan

Violence escalated in Waziristan tribal area and Balochistan province. In South Waziristan 12 killed by market bomb in Jandola while 22 killed in separate clashes between Islamist students and bandits in neighbouring North Waziristan. Balochistan unrest worsened as insurgents attacked railway line, fired rockets at government buildings and blew up bridge in response to military operation launched 18 December; unconfirmed reports of heavy casualties. Madrasa leaders rejected government deadline to expel foreign students from religious schools by year-end.

Peru

Government declared state of emergency after Shining Path guerrillas killed 8 police 20 December in Huanuco region northeast of Lima; earlier guerrillas killed 5 police near southern town of San Francisco. Former army officer Ollanta Humala, leader of brief revolt against former president Fujimori in 2000, registered as Peruvian Nationalist Party candidate for 9 April presidential elections.

Improved Situations

Afghanistan

Newly elected parliament, first in 30 years, held inaugural session 19 December: members of Wolesi and Meshrano Jirgas (lower and upper houses) sworn in by President Karzai. Former Shura-yi Nazar member and Karzai rival, Younus Qanooni, elected head of Wolesi Jirga with Karzai appointee Sebghatullah Mujaddedi leading Meshrano Jirga. NATO announced intention to send additional 6,000 peacekeeping troops to south in 2006, mainly Canadian and UK troops with Dutch commitment still being debated. Washington expected to withdraw 2,500 troops from Operation Enduring Freedom in area. UNSG Annan appointed German peacekeeping official Tom Koenigs as Special Representative to replace Jean Arnault early 2006.

Bolivia

Evo Morales won historic victory in 18 December presidential election. First round poll, described by observers as “free and fair”, gave Morales over required 50% of vote to become Bolivia’s first indigenous head of state; turnout high. Morales’ party Movement Toward Socialism won 65 of 157 seats in Lower House and Senate; will need to form alliances to pass new legislation.

Cote d’Ivorie

Political deadlock broken as Charles Konan Banny, president of Central Bank of Western African States, named interim PM by African mediators 4 December; appointment accepted by all parties including President Gbagbo and Forces Nouvelles rebels. Banny named cross-faction cabinet 28 December, but pro-Gbagbo militants protested against portfolio distribution. Banny retained sensitive communications and finance dossiers to ensure full prime ministerial powers as defined in UNSC resolution 1633. New UNSC resolution 1643 banned rough diamond exports, renewed arms embargo and threat of targeted sanctions against any individual interfering with peace process. Parliament’s mandate extended to 2006 by constitutional court. Unidentified gunmen attacked Abidjan military bases 2 January, as CrisisWatch went to press. Government reportedly established control within hours.

DR Congo

First democratic vote in 4 decades saw overwhelming majority (78%) approve constitution in 18-19 December referendum, paving way for 2006 presidential and parliamentary elections. Pasteur Theodore Ngoye, presidential candidate and leader of “No” vote during referendum, arrested; called for referendum annulment due to “irregularities”. In Katanga, 11,000 fled violence adding to 30,000 recently displaced as result of DRC military operations against Mai Mai militias. Situation slowly began to improve in east, with army and UN conducting joint operation against Ugandan rebels. 185 FDLR returned to Rwanda to disarm. UN Security Council threatened sanctions if rebels do not disarm by 15 January.

February 2006

Risk Alerts

Nepal

Political turmoil continued ahead of planned 8 February municipal elections. Major escalation in violence between security forces and Maoists left at least 90 dead. Royal government insisted vote will go ahead despite widespread resistance. Maoists and mainstream parties continued boycott call. EU called planned elections “another step backwards for democracy”, while former PM K.P. Bhattarai urged King Gyanendra to relinquish power and cooperate with parties. Assassination of royalist mayoral candidate Bijay Lal Das 23 January blamed on Maoists. Despite restrictions and house arrest of senior political leaders, mass protests held in Kathmandu 21 January, resulting in several hundred arrests. In significant move, China, having not previously engaged publicly, issued statement of concern over recent political developments and called for dialogue.

Sri Lanka

Situation approaching outright civil war after deadliest month since 2002 ceasefire. Attacks on military killed at least 80; LTTE supporters claimed over 40 Tamils killed by security forces or gunmen since early December. Norwegian peace envoy Erik Solheim arrived 23 January in last-ditch effort to avert full-scale conflict: LTTE and government agreed to talks in Switzerland early February but killing of senior LTTE officer and abduction of 5 Tamil aid workers end January dampened optimism. Norway-led Monitoring Mission temporarily suspended in Trincomalee after grenade attack amidst escalation of violence.

Deteriorating Situations

Côte d’Ivoire

Situation grew extremely volatile after 4 days of widespread rioting by pro-President Gbagbo youths 16-19 January, which reportedly left 11 dead. Protesters demanded UN leave after foreign mediators announced National Assembly’s expired mandate should not be extended. Opponents accused president of complicity in unrest while UN said protests “orchestrated”.  UN troops and agencies withdrew from Guiglo after peacekeepers killed 4 protesters who attacked UN base 18 January. Same evening Nigerian President Obasanjo held emergency talks with Gbagbo, releasing joint statement that National Assembly not dissolved. Security situation calmed 19-20 January and FPI announced return to peace process 23 January (reversing 17 January withdrawal). UN infrastructure damaged in west and nearly 400 workers evacuated, disrupting aid operations, ahead of possible imposition of targeted sanctions by UN. UN Security Council extended peacekeeping mission (UNOCI) until December 2006. Opposition leader and former PM Alassane Ouattara returned from 3 years exile 25 January.

Kyrgyzstan

Political breakdown gathered momentum. Sports hero and leading contender for head of National Olympic Committee shot dead, latest in string of political murders: previous head killed September 2005. Interior Ministry detained operative of National Security Service (NSS) in connection with killing and accused NSS of links with organised crime. Ryspek Akmatbayev, organiser of October Bishkek protests demanding PM Kulov’s dismissal, acquitted of murder after prosecution dropped charges. PM Kulov publicly blamed Akmatbayev and NSS chief Aybayev for rise in criminality, as parliament demanded Aybayev’s resignation. President announced governors of Jalalabad and Talas provinces to trade places, after attempt to sack Jalalabad governor - key figure in March 2005 “tulip revolution” - led to protests in both provinces.

Iran

Tehran broke UN seals on 3 nuclear research facilities but denied intention to build nuclear weapons. UK, U.S. France, Russia, China and Germany agreed International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) should report Iran to Security Council at 2 February emergency meeting, but to defer any UNSC action until March IAEA report on Iran’s nuclear activities. Move seen as compromise between U.S. and EU3, pushing for referral to UNSC for possible sanctions, and Russia and China, against sanctions. Moscow continued efforts to broker compromise that would see it enrich Iranian uranium; talks between Iran and Russia to resume 16 February. 2 blasts in southwestern city of Ahwaz 24 January killed 8; bombs blamed on Arab separatists.

Nigeria

Security deteriorated with series of apparently politically motivated attacks on oil production in Delta region. Several attacks on foreign companies and oil infrastructure while 4 foreign workers held hostage 11-30 January; at least 30 reported dead and oil output cut amidst threats of further assaults. Previously unknown Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta claimed responsibility for 11 January attacks, made political demands including release of Niger Delta leaders Mujahid Dokusu Asari and Diepreye Alamieyaseigha. Army deployed extra troops as oil company Shell evacuated workers from 4 sites and unions threatened withdrawal.

Improved Situations

Kuwait

Kuwait became first gulf state to replace leader using constitutional and parliamentary process. Parliament ousted Saad al-Abdullah on health grounds after his succession on 15 January following death of emir. Current PM Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah chosen as replacement.

Liberia

Cautious optimism after inauguration of President Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf and her appointment of first 9 of 22 new ministers 16 January. New legislature elected Edwin Snowe, former son-in-law of Charles Taylor, as speaker of House of Representatives.  Snowe and 3 other parliamentarians blocked from leaving country earlier in month in enforcement of UN travel ban on those with ongoing ties with Taylor. Parliament approved measures for audit of transitional government and travel block on senior officials until audit completed. Recruitment drive for new national army began 18 January.

Somalia

Breakthrough for peace process as President Abdullahi Yusuf and Speaker of Parliament Sharif Hassan Sheikh Adan signed Aden declaration in Yemen 5 January to unite Jowhar and Mogadishu-based rival factions of transitional government; later agreed parliament should meet in Baidoa 26 February. Mogadishu MPs endorsed deal but PM Geedi continued to favour Jowhar. AU urged UN to make exception in arms embargo to allow foreign peacekeepers to help interim government following foreign minister’s request at Khartoum AU summit. 2 former colonels and senior police officer killed in separate Mogadishu attacks, raising fears of new wave of assassinations. Various clashes between rival clans in Galguduud and Jubbada Hoose districts killed 34.

March 2006

Risk Alerts

Iraq

Fears grew of descent into full-scale civil war as sectarian violence escalated and political negotiations over composition of new government increasingly characterised by pursuit of narrowly-defined ethnic and sectarian interests. Bombing of Shiite al-Askariya shrine in Samara 22 February set off worst sectarian violence of U.S. occupation. Massive demonstrations, reprisal attacks and suicide bombings followed; estimates put death toll at 800. Surge in violence prompted talks between Sunni and Shiite leaders who promised to work together. Shiite-led United Iraqi Alliance (UIA) sought coalition partners to form new majority government but agreement with Kurdish, Sunni Arab and secular parties remained elusive. Interim PM Jaafari selected as UIA candidate for prime minister; requires two-thirds parliamentary approval for cabinet. U.S. intensified effort to bring Sunni Arabs into political process; U.S. Ambassador Khalilzad issued thinly-veiled threat to restrict U.S. aid should

Deterioating Situations

India (non-Kashmir)

Maoist violence escalated in Chhattisgarh state while northeastern unrest continued. Maoists killed 70, including 8 police in 9 February raid on state- run explosives factory, and as many as 55 members of anti-Maoist group in 28 February landmine blast. Protests against death of man in police custody in northeastern Tinsukia district turned violent killing 12. Representatives for United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) held productive talks with state officials 7 February ahead of proposed direct talks between government and ULFA leadership; government agreed to series of confidence-building measures. Attack on state gas workers 14 February killed 3; National Liberation Front of Tripura rebels suspected.

Kazakhstan

Opposition leader Altynbek Sarsenbaev assassinated along with driver and bodyguard, sending shock waves through political elite: second suspicious death of senior opposition figure since November. Senate General Secretary Erzhan Utembaev arrested and reportedly admitted ordering killing of Sarsenbaev out of “personal enmity”. 5 members of state security service charged with kidnapping and killing, prompting resignation of agency’s head. Opposition suggested Utembaev being used as scapegoat; called for resignation of Senate Speaker Nurtai Abykaev and questioning of president’s daughter, parliamentarian Dariga Nazarbaeva, and her husband Deputy FM Rakhat Aliyevis. Around 1,000 marched in Almaty in memory of Sarsenbaev. U.S. FBI assisting Kazakh government in investigation after request for assistance.

Nigeria

Security deteriorated with upsurge in religious and political violence. Protests by Muslims against Danish cartoons satirising Prophet Mohammed turned violent, killing 50, mostly Christians, as churches and Christian businesses targeted in several northern cities. In response, riots broke out against Muslims in Christian south; over 100 reported dead. Security situation remained volatile in Delta region, after new series of politically motivated attacks by Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta on oil infrastructure and kidnapping of 9 foreign workers.

North Caucasus (non-Chechnya)

Violence spread north from turbulent border republics with clash between security forces and suspected militants in Stavrapol krai, leaving 7 police, 12 gunmen dead. Head of Daghestan Republic Magomedali Magomedov resigned stoking fears of power struggle: Kremlin installed Mukhu Aliyev as successor. In further clashes, at least 5 reported killed in Daghestan and 2 in Ingushetia. 3 blasts, treated as terrorist attacks, at gaming halls in North Ossetian town of Vladikavkaz killed 2.

Pakistan

Sectarian violence erupted in North West Frontier Province: at least 35 killed in suicide bombing on Shiite Ashura procession and subsequent unrest. Government officials blamed external elements rather than local sectarian tensions, while local Shiite leaders blamed government for failing to curb Sunni militants. 5 days of increasingly violent protests held to denounce publication of cartoons of Prophet Mohammed in western media. Protests turned deadly in Lahore and Peshawar; 5 reported killed. Islamist coalition Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal leader, Qazi Hussain Ahmed, briefly held under house arrest to prevent him leading Islamabad rally 19 February. Unrest continued in South Waziristan as 3 soldiers killed by roadside bomb 5 February. Balochistan rebels intensified insurgency with 2 February rocket attack and 5 February bus bomb: at least 21 killed. Nationwide protest planned against 3 March visit of U.S. President Bush.

Philippines

State of emergency declared by President Arroyo 24 February amidst reports that military thwarted coup attempt and after minor blast at presidential palace. Top military officers “retired” in end to minor rebellion by marines, Daily Tribune newspaper’s offices raided while 16 members of congress and security forces charged with coup plot. Commemorations to mark 20th anniversary of revolution that ousted President Marcos cancelled but small rallies held, leading to minor standoffs with security forces. Exploratory talks began 6 February between Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and government; both sides hopeful for peace agreement on Moro homeland and future of 12,000-strong MILF force by September 2006. Clashes continued between military and suspected Abu Sayyaf members on Basilan and with Communist National People’s Army south of capital.

Taiwan Strait

Tension raised between Beijing and Taipei after President Chen Shui-bian announced National Unification Council and its guidelines would “cease to function” 27 February. Move brought condemnation from Beijing who previously called Chen “troublemaker and saboteur”.

Improved Situations

Cambodia

Opposition leader Sam Rainsy returned from self-imposed exile 10 February after receiving royal pardon for allegations against PM Hun Sen and National Assembly leader Prince Norodom Ranariddh; pardon followed Rainsy apology. International donor meeting scheduled to start 3 March.

Sri Lanka

In significant step forward, government and Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, meeting in Geneva, released joint statement committing to curb violence and hold further talks in April. Violence decreased considerably in run-up to 22-23 February Norwegian-backed talks. Government freed 4 rebels as good-will gesture.

April 2006

Risk Alerts

Afghanistan

Taliban announced start of “Spring offensive” with 29 March attack on U.S. and Canadian troops in southern Helmand province that killed 2 soldiers and 32 Taliban: escalation of violence expected. Taliban targeted prominent pro-government officials in south and east, including former governor of Ghazni province, Helmand province intelligence chief and senior official in Langman province. Relations with Pakistan deteriorated to worst level since fall of Taliban as sides engaged in war of words over cross-border militant infiltrations. Assassination attempt in Kabul 12 March on Sibghatullah Mujaddedi, former president and head of National Reconciliation Commission, blamed by Mujaddedi on Pakistani military intelligence. 16 Pakistanis killed near border town of Spin Boldak 22 March: Kabul claimed they were militants, Islamabad tourists. New cabinet presented to National Assembly for confirmation 22 March, in first confrontation between executive and legislature.

Guinea

President Conté temporarily evacuated to Switzerland mid-month for medical treatment. Amidst coup fears, opposition parties proposed establishing transitional government with international support. Trade union general strike that crippled Conakry ended early March after government reached agreement with civil servants; spurred National Consultation with civil society and opposition.

Iraq

Increased anxiety about slide into full-scale civil war with polarised political process, institutional fragmentation and on-going sectarian conflict. U.S. military suggested 30 sectarian killings occurring daily; informal tallies much higher. Iraqi leaders continued high-level talks to form national unity government. Parliament met for first time 16 March, but members took no action in absence of agreement on government. Shiite Alliance chose PM Ibrahim al-Jaafari to lead government but Sunni Arabs and Kurds rejected choice; Alliance said will resist any efforts to drop Jaafari. Iran agreed to talks with U.S. to discuss Iraq. Insurgent attack in Baghdad slum, Sadr City, 13 March killed 52. Police continued to be targeted by insurgents: at least 25 killed in 23 March suicide attack in Baghdad; another police post stormed by insurgents 21 March, killing at least 22. Trial of Saddam Hussein to reconvene 5 April.

Nepal

Widespread clashes between Maoists and security forces continued while government threatened clampdown. Escalation of violence feared ahead of 6-9 April planned demonstrations called by political parties and supported by Maoists. Maoist 6-day nationwide road blockade caused chaos while clashes with army included Palpa district clash 1 March where 31 killed. President Bush called on

Somalia

Heavy fighting between Islamic Courts’ militia and members of U.S.-backed Alliance for the Restoration of Peace and Counter-Terrorism killed up to 140 in Mogadishu. Talks to resolve conflict collapsed and escalation feared. UN Security Council welcomed first in-country session of full transitional parliament in Baidoa but warned violence could undermine political progress; also indicated readiness to consider arms embargo exemption for possible IGAD/AU peace-support mission if approved by Somali parliament. U.S. navy clashed with seagoing militias after UNSC encouraged operations against piracy off Somali coast.

Deterioating Situations

Belarus

Incumbent Aleksandr Lukashenko declared winner of 19 March presidential election with 82.6% of vote. OSCE observers said poll not free and fair. Opposition came under pressure in run-up to election with series of arrests, beatings and clampdown on independent press. Protests held against election violations in Minsk, culminating in large rally 25 March, violently broken up by police. 1,000 reportedly arrested after week of protests, including senior figure Alexander Kozulin. EU and U.S. declared would target sanctions at those responsible for electoral violations and post-election crackdown. UN Special Rapporteur Adrian Severin led UN call for immediate investigation into deteriorating rights situation. Russia congratulated Lukaschenko.

Central African Republic

Refugees fleeing unrest in north claimed attacked by government troops: 7,000 have fled to Chad since January, with 50,000 more internally displaced. Government confirmed existence of rebellion in northwest for first time 13 March; accused former President Patasse and MLDC party of fuelling unrest.

Chad

Fighting between government forces and rebels intensified, with risk of further deterioration. Military launched operation against SCUD base 20 March: army said base destroyed while rebels claimed repelled attack. Army commander General Itno killed 31 March in clash with rebels and Sudanese militia. SCUD announced would try to stop President Deby from holding 3 May presidential elections, while opposition called for boycott of poll. Earlier, government blamed rebels for reported assassination attempt on Deby. AU endorsed plan to deploy military observers to Chad/Sudan border as provided under February peace agreement.

Ecuador

Indigenous demonstrations demanding end to free-trade talks with U.S. caused widespread turmoil. State of emergency declared in 5 central provinces. Indigenous leaders called temporary halt to protests 24 March, but reconsidered demonstrations at assembly at end of month. Interior Minister Castillo resigned over government’s handling of crisis.

Gambia

Government said it thwarted coup plot by army. 28 arrested, including 15 officers, but supposed leader, former defence chief Ndure Cham, still at large. Intelligence and defence heads replaced and Independent newspaper editors arrested in “coup” aftermath.

Guinea-Bissau/Senegal

Fierce fighting between G-B army and Senegalese Casamance rebels near border killed at least 12 and displaced 5,000. Rebel group’s hardline wing rejects 2004 peace deal with Senegal. Rebels blamed for landmine that killed 12 in minibus outside G-B town of Sao Domingos 16 March.

Turkey

Security rapidly deteriorated in southeastern cities of Diyarbakir and Batman. Protests at 28 March funeral of 4 PKK militants, among 14 killed in military operation in Mus province, sparked 4 days of rioting in which 7 reported dead. Suspected PKK attacks killed at least 10 including 3 in suicide bombing outside governor’s office in Van 9 March. 1 killed in Istanbul explosion 31 March claimed by Kurdistan Freedom Falcons. In on-going inquiry into alleged army involvement in November Semdinli bombing, regional prosecutor Ferhat Sarikaya called for investigation into army second-in-command General Yasar Buyukanit. Army condemned Sarikaya and rejected investigation of any officers.

Uzbekistan

Government intensified crackdown on opposition activists and international organisations, sentencing dissidents to long prison terms and expelling UNHCR and U.S. NGO Freedom House. Opposition Sunshine Coalition leaders Nigora Khidoyatova and Sanjar Umarov given 10- and 11-year sentences for economic crimes which supporters say politically motivated; rights activist Mutabar Tojiboeva received 8-year sentence. Government published new restrictions on foreign journalists’ activities, as President Islam Karimov said nation under attack from West in “information war”.

Pakistan

Fierce fighting in North Waziristan risked spreading to neighbouring tribal regions. Government claimed nearly 200 local Taliban militants and 5 soldiers killed. Further 25 killed in operation outside Miranshah near Afghan border. Unrest in Balochistan continued with series of mine blasts and attacks on infrastructure: 26 killed in Dera Bugti 10 March. In North West Frontier Province’s Khyber Agency, clash between supporters of rival clerics killed 26.

Improved Situations

Basque Country (Spain)

ETA announced “permanent” ceasefire 22 March, raising hopes for solution to longstanding conflict. Spanish PM Zapatero indicated government would seek parliamentary support for peace talks “before summer” if ceasefire sincere and comprehensive. Basque nationalist party Batasuna organised strike 9 March after 2 ETA members died in custody; 2 bombs exploded same day.

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Potentially momentous breakthrough as vital EU/U.S.-sponsored constitutional reforms agreed by 7 main political parties. Reforms would create single rotating presidency, larger and more efficient parliament, and curtail powers of Council of Ministers. Agreement now awaiting parliamentary approval. First-round negotiations with EU on Stabilisation and Association Agreement began 17 March. High Rep. Schwarz-Schilling announced gradual repeal of laws banning certain officials from public office, except those dismissed for aiding ICTY indictees. Republika Srpska (RS) court, in second ever war crimes conviction in RS, sentenced Bosnian Serb to 20 years.

Haiti

Situation showed signs of improvement, with decline in kidnappings and attacks on UN mission since February elections. Government announced delayed second round of parliamentary polls to be held 21 April. Inauguration of president-elect René Préval expected 14 May. Préval met key Latin America leaders and U.S. president; called on UN Security Council for more aid.

May 2006

Risk Alerts

Nigeria

Further political instability as government debated possible third term bid for President Obasanjo amid wide-scale protests. Rift widened between president and VP Abubakar, who called for Obasanjo’s resignation before announcing own candidacy for 2007 elections. MEND rebels rejected presidential initiative to create jobs in Niger Delta; set off car bombs at military base in Port Harcourt, killing 2, and near Warri; threatened to shut down all oil production. 25 killed in ethnic land dispute between Gomai and Pan tribes in Plateau state; more than 1,200 displaced.

Somalia

Outbreak of further major fighting feared imminent in Mogadishu after Islamic courts declared jihad on U.S.-backed Alliance for the Restoration of Peace and Counter-Terrorism; 7 killed in clashes. Transitional parliament confirmed Baidoa temporary seat of government until security restored in Mogadishu, settling issue that had paralysed administration. Militia protecting parliament prevented lawmakers from entering session 1 April, complaining of inadequate shelter. At least 3 killed in clash between soldiers loyal to Puntland’s president and regional clan opposed to exploration activities by Australian oil company. U.S. held talks with government on fighting piracy off Somali coast; 2 ships hijacked in month.

Sri Lanka

Fears of return to full-scale civil war after major upsurge in violence left over 100 dead, and with both government and Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) threatening immediate retaliation for further attacks. Government launched air strikes against Tamil positions after suicide bomber injured army chief and killed 10 in Colombo 25 April. Bombing followed 2 weeks of violent attacks against civilians and inter-communal rioting between Sinhalese and Tamils. Before suicide bombing, LTTE had “indefinitely postponed” scheduled second round Geneva talks with government, citing violence against Tamil civilians and restrictions on movement of LTTE leaders.

Deterioating Situations

Afghanistan

Taliban “spring offensive” saw increased suicide attacks and bombings in south and east; more expected amidst transition from U.S. control to NATO in south. U.S., UK and national security forces launched its largest operation since 2001 in eastern Kunar province. Heavy fighting erupted in Kandahar as international and local forces clashed with anti-government elements: casualties included 6 police, several civilians and reportedly over 40 Taliban; 4 Canadian soldiers killed in roadside blast 22 April. Earlier 14 militants killed in attacks on checkpoints in Zabul province while 5 Afghan health workers killed in Badghis province. Suspected suicide bombers targeted Italian base in Herat - killing 4 - and U.S. bases at Bagram and in Helmand province. Voting on Cabinet confirmation took place 20 April in lower house of National Assembly. New foreign and defence ministers won vote of confidence in perceived government victory; transport and commerce ministers among 5 rejected.

Chad

Security deteriorated as Chadian FUCD rebels launched major attack on N’Djamena 13 April ahead of presidential election set for 3 May; 300 reported killed, 160 captured. Government accused Sudan of backing rebels, cut off diplomatic ties with Khartoum and shut borders. AU team sent to investigate; rebels interviewed reported they had received assistance from Sudan. France, with military base in Chad, provided intelligence and indicated support for “legitimacy and legality” of government led by President Déby. World Bank agreed to lift freeze on loans and oil fund if government adopts law dedicating 70% of oil revenues to poverty reduction; Déby had threatened to shut pipeline if not given access to funds to purchase weapons and pay salaries.

Egypt

Three explosions in Dahab resort in Sinai 24 April killed 18. No group claimed responsibility but same organisation that carried out 2004 Taba and 2005 Sharm El-Sheikh attacks suspected: 1 suspect killed during police operation 30 April. 2 suicide bombers killed in further attacks on Multinational Force and Observers post in northern Sinai 26 April. Earlier, sectarian  attacks on 3 churches in Alexandria killed 1 and sparked 3 days of protests by Coptic Christians and violent clashes 14-16 April. Hundreds arrested, but government criticised for initially downplaying attacks. 2 judges who had spoken out against irregularities in 2005 parliamentary elections summoned to 27 April disciplinary tribunal; hearing adjourned to 11 May; police arrested and beat activists protesting summoning. Interior ministry announced over 900 Jamaa Islamiyya members released from prison. President Mubarek pushed through parliament 2-year extension on 1981 emergency law allowing indefinite detention of prisoners 30 April. Wafd party survival in balance after factions clashed over leadership in Cairo 1 April following attempt by ousted party president Noman Gomaa to seize party headquarters by force.

Guinea

Power struggle emerging within ailing President Lansana Conté’s cabinet. State radio announced cabinet reshuffle 5 April granting PM Cellou Diallo and associates greater power; broadcast cut off by presidential guard. Decree rescinded and PM Diallo sacked next day.

Iran

IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) said Tehran had successfully produced enriched uranium but had defied UN Security Council’s 28 April deadline to stop process. U.S. said would seek new UNSC resolution requiring Iran to stop enrichment or face sanctions. Rhetoric on both sides heated up. with U.S. warning of consequences of continued Iranian defiance, and Tehran vowing to strike U.S. interests around the world if attacked. UNSC permanent members and Germany to meet 2 May to discuss next steps. Iranian forces reportedly shelled Kurdish rebel positions in northern Iraq.

Israel/Occupied Territories

Violence escalated between Israelis and Palestinians while tensions rose between Hamas and Fatah. Islamic Jihad suicide bombing in Tel Aviv 17 April killed 9. Hamas government called blast “self-defence” and “natural result” of continued Israeli depredations, leading to international condemnation. Meanwhile, Israeli strikes on Gaza reportedly killed at least 6 children and several militants, in reprisals over continued Qassam rocket attacks. EU and U.S. suspended funding for Hamas-led government but Gulf countries and Iran pledged over $200 million, and Arab League said to be preparing to transfer 2-months’ wages direct to government employees. Tensions between Hamas and Fatah worsened after new Palestinian Interior Minister Said Siyam announced formation of shadow security force comprising members of militant groups to be led by militant faction leader Jamal Abu Samhadana. Mahmoud Abbas issued presidential decree nullifying proposal, leading to angry Hamas response and clashes between supporters of both sides. New Israeli coalition set to take power, composed of centrist Kadima, left-leaning Labour, ultra-Orthodox Shas and Pensioners’ parties.

Kashmir

Upsurge in attacks by separatists in first major violence since November 2005. 22 Hindu villagers killed by militants in Doda district 1 May. Wave of Srinagar grenade attacks 14 April and gunbattles in Srinagar and Jammu and Kashmir killed at least 17. Kashmiri radical separatist groups claimed responsibility. Senior opposition politician Ali Mohammad Naik wounded and 2 guards killed 17 April in attack claimed by Islamic Front militants. By-elections held for 4 seats for Jammu and Kashmir state assembly. 3 politicians reportedly killed by insurgents. Indian PM Manmohan Singh to meet Kashmiri separatist leaders in New Delhi early May.

Kyrgyzstan

President Bakiyev came under increasing pressure to deal with crime and corruption after prominent pro-democracy activist Edil Baisalov seriously injured in attack by unknown assailant. Baisalov had organised demonstration against criminalisation of politics ahead of 9 April parliamentary by-elections in which alleged organised crime bosses were candidates, including Ryspek Akmatbayev (who won despite questions over legality of his candidacy). Alliance of opposition politicians and NGOs issued 18 April ultimatum to president to tackle problems or resign. 29 April opposition rally ended peacefully after Bakiyev unexpectedly addressed crowd and appealed for patience. President threatened closure of U.S. Manas airbase if new agreement on rent payments not reached by June.

Myanmar/Burma

Army intensified offensive against Karen communities near new capital Pyinmana and along Thai border: thousands reportedly displaced. U.S. condemned campaign, saying military regime threat to region. Ruling junta threatened National League for Democracy with dissolution, claiming links to terrorist actions. Series of small blasts targeting Yangon infrastructure 20 April came week after government called exiled pro-democracy groups terrorists. ASEAN ministers agreed to continue policy of engagement despite lack of progress on “roadmap to democracy”, and failure of ASEAN envoy’s March visit.

Pakistan

Security situation continued to deteriorate as at least 57 killed in worst terrorist attack in Karachi’s history: suicide bombing of congregation of Sunnis celebrating Eid Milad festival killed entire leadership of Sunni Tehrik group, as well as many leaders of Jamaat Ulema Pakistan (JUP) - both Barelvi religious parties; JUP also partner in Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal 6-party religious alliance. Responsibility for blast unclear: observers suggested intra-Sunni rivalry, others, Deobandi extremist groups. Pro-Taliban militants attacked paramilitary troops near Miranshah, main town of North Waziristan region 20 April reportedly killing 7.

Solomon Islands

PM Snyder Rini resigned after 8-day tenure marked by violent riots in capital, Honiara. Demonstrators claimed Rini, elected via secret ballot by newly elected members of parliament 18 April, too closely linked to previous tainted administration, and had used money from Taiwanese or Chinese sources - in context of continuing cross-Strait diplomatic battle over recognition of Taiwan - to bribe his win. Riots targeted Chinatown and left large areas in ruins. Government implemented curfew while Australian-led peacekeeping force - bolstered by additional 110 troops - patrolled city to prevent further violence. Curfew lifted 27 April, with new elections due first week May.

Timor-Leste

Protest against government sacking of 600 soldiers turned violent 28 April, at least 2 killed; was latest in series of demonstrations by troops - many from west of country - claiming discrimination in military.

Improved Situations

Guinea-Bissau/Senegal

Guinea-Bissau troops ended offensive against Senegalese secessionist Movement for the Democratic Forces of Casamance 21 April.

Nepal

After 19 days of mass anti-monarchy protests, King Gyanendra agreed to restore parliament for first time since its dissolution in 2002. Move came as king faced mounting pressure from mass protests despite government-imposed curfews and violent clampdown by security forces; at least 16 killed. 6 others killed by army in southeastern Nepal during protests over death of woman allegedly raped and shot by soldiers. Parliament convened 28 April, with veteran Nepali Congress head Girija Prasad Koirala as consensus PM. But several challenges remain, including building peace process with Maoist rebels, who declared 3-month ceasefire following king’s 24 April climbdown, and effecting constitutional change through new constituent assembly (to be now elected).

June 2006

Risk Alerts

Israel/Occupied Territories

Mounting violence in Gaza fuelled by power struggle between Fatah and Hamas loyalists raised fears of civil war. Rivalries focused on respective control of Palestinian President Abbas and Islamist Palestinian Authority (PA) government over security forces. Abbas sent police to Gaza in response to Hamas deployment of 3,000-strong force provoking clashes from 17 May; 10 killed before “national dialogue” to resolve differences commenced 25 May. Abbas gave Hamas 10 days to agree to borders’ framework negotiated among Palestinian imprisoned leaders or call referendum. Israeli air strikes on Gaza killed 15 militants, senior Islamic Jihad leader and several civilians. Israel’s parliament voted 65-49 in favour of PM Olmert’s government 4 May. Olmert received implicit U.S. backing for “bold ideas” for West Bank: removal of remote settlements, keeping larger enclaves and imposing border if political negotiations not resumed by end 2006. U.S. House of Representatives backed legislation to brand PA “terrorist sanctuary” severing all contacts with PA and further restricting assistance. Quartet (U.S., Russia, EU, UN) agreed in principle to endorse “temporary mechanism” to channel aid to Palestinian people while bypassing government. Air strikes and clashes with Lebanon-based militants followed rocket attack 28 May.

Deterioating Situations

Afghanistan

Month saw worst violence since 2001, while in Kabul new parliament asserted its authority. 350 insurgents, civilians and security personnel killed across southern provinces. Resurgent Taliban used large units, reportedly teaming up with drug traffickers and other anti-government elements, to attack coalition troops and Afghan security forces. U.S. military-truck accident in Kabul 29 May sparked mass anti-U.S. riots, killing 8. UK began deployment of 3,500 troops as part of NATO-led peacekeeping expansion in south and formally assumed command from U.S.-led troops in Helmand 1 May. 20 members of new cabinet, including ministers of defence, foreign affairs, interior and finance, sworn in 2 May after approved by parliament; 5 positions remain to be filled. Parliament rejected renomination of conservative head of Supreme Court, seen as major impediment to judicial reform.

Brazil

Orchestrated, week-long clashes between notorious Sao Paolo gang First Capital Command and police claimed 170. Violence against police ordered by jailed leaders after 8 transferred away from Sao Paolo. Deaths included 40 police; officials denied police heavy-handed but gave no explanation for deaths of up to 107 “suspects”.

DR Congo

Tensions increased substantially in Kinshasa as a third of 33 presidential candidates called for new electoral commission head and talks to renegotiate 30 July election date. Government cracked down on opposition as forces loyal to President Kabila harassed other candidates, and restrictions placed on 3 radio stations for inflammatory broadcasts. 10,000 Kabila supporters marched in Kinshasa 31 May against opposition call for negotiations. 52 rebels, 6 government soldiers, 1 UN peacekeeper killed in clashes in Ituri, where joint DRC-MONUC operation continued to flush out illegal armed groups responsible for near-daily attacks. FDLR rebels attacked 2 villages and army base in North Kivu. In Katanga, Mai Mai warlord Gedeon Kyungu and 350 fighters surrendered to take part in DDR program.

Lebanon

Worst cross-border fighting in 6 years erupted 28 May after rockets fired into Israel in apparent response to killing of Islamic Jihad group leader in south. Israeli air strikes targeted Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine camps, leading to exchange of artillery fire, and border skirmishes with Hizbollah: 3 guerrillas reportedly killed before truce brokered by UN. Political leaders held seventh round of “national dialogue” talks 16 May but failed to find consensus on future of pro-Syrian President Lahoud or disarmament of Hizbollah: talks to continue 8 June. Rival leaders’ March pledge to peacefully disarm guerrillas outside camps within 6 months yet to be implemented. Lebanese soldier killed in skirmish with pro-Syrian Palestinian guerrillas 17 May. UN Security Council called for disbandment of all militias inside Lebanon.

Mali

Tuareg rebels occupied 2 military bases in north eastern town of Kidal 23 May, and reportedly stole military equipment before retreating. Government forces retook control but growing tensions in town prompted fears of more violence.

Somalia

Heavy fighting between Islamic Courts militia and U.S.-backed Alliance for the Restoration of Peace and Counter-Terrorism spread throughout Mogadishu, after collapse of temporary ceasefire that ended 7-14 May clashes; over 200 killed in month. Alliance accused Courts of links to al-Qaeda, while Courts accused U.S. of funnelling cash to warlords. PM Gedi gave 3 cabinet ministers (also Alliance members in Mogadishu) until early June to come to Baidoa or face dismissal, while cabinet supported inviting Ugandan and Sudanese peacekeepers to improve security. UN Security Council monitoring group reported weapons inflow from increasing number of states, including Djibouti, Eritrea, Italy and Saudi Arabia; all denied violating embargo.

Sri Lanka

Security continued to deteriorate. Sri Lankan Monitoring Mission admitted “low-intensity war” and ruled government and Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) violated truce and security forces involved in extrajudicial retaliatory killings of Tamil civilians. Widespread violence included 11 May clash between navies killing 17 sailors and 50 LTTE. Rebels accused military of killing commander in Batticaloa. Attacks also targeted humanitarian workers: employee of Norwegian Refugee Council killed. Rebels and government agreed to talks in Norway to discuss security of peace monitors but LTTE insist not part of peace negotiations. Donor “Co-chairs” (Japan, U.S., EU, Norway) condemned both sides for deterioration. EU placed LTTE on terrorist list despite earlier rebel warning move would provoke “hardline individualist path”.

Timor-Leste

Security collapsed as 600 renegade soldiers, dismissed in April after strike over perceived discrimination against western recruits and led by Maj. Alfredo Reinado, clashed with security forces. 30 killed since late April, including 10 disarmed police under UN protection, leading to deployment of over 2,000 mostly Australian troops 25-29 May at request of government. Arson attacks and looting throughout capital as urban gang members contributed to chaos, along with protests calling for resignation of PM Alkatiri. President Gusmao imposed emergency powers of full presidential control 30 May; defence and interior ministers resigned 1 June.

Turkey

Political turmoil followed gunman’s attack on High Court that killed judge 17 May. Suspected assailant and accomplices quickly arrested. Opposition alleged government provoked attack with its criticism of February court ruling against teacher who wore headscarf en route to school, but ongoing investigation into suspects suggest ultra-nationalist rather than radical-Islamist links. Tensions escalated as judiciary and military led 20,000-strong pro-secularist anti-government demonstration in Ankara, and ministers assaulted at judge’s funeral. Landmark trial of 2 military police officers accused over November 2005 Semdinli incidents began. At least 12 killed in military-PKK clashes in southeast. 18 May French parliamentary vote to criminalise denial of Armenian genocide delayed to October; followed recall of ambassadors from France and Canada over issue. Greek and Turkish FMs sought to defuse tensions after 2 jets collided during mock “dog-fight” in disputed Aegean airspace, killing Greek pilot.

Improved Situations

Colombia

Incumbent President Uribe won 28 May presidential election with 62% of vote, reinforcing his strong stance against rebels and move toward stability; leftwing Carlos Gaviria came second with 22%. Polls relatively peaceful though FARC stepped up attacks prior to vote: bombed power installations and organised grenade attacks in main port city of Buenaventura, blew up part of second most important pipeline, and attacked army patrol in Cauca in south. Constitutional court altered key provisions of controversial Justice and Peace Law, basis for peace process with AUC paramilitaries, after declaring original terms unconstitutional. AUC warned decision major blow to talks but later agreed to continue peace process.

Côte d’Ivoire

Twin processes of ex-rebel disarmament and voter identification underway in preparation for October elections. Disarmament pre-regroupment phase will see combatants return to barracks. Government offices began 1-week trial phase to identify estimated 3 million Ivorians without identity papers.

Haiti

In positive move toward peace, René Préval inaugurated as president 14 May and parliament sworn in 9 May. Préval nominated close political ally Jacques Edouard Alexis as PM; senate and chamber of deputies approved appointment. Security continued to improve, but tensions remained, particularly in Cité Soleil slum.

Montenegro

21 May referendum resulted in victory for independence movement with 55.53% of vote - exceeding EU-imposed 55% hurdle - and 86% turnout. Some unionists, backed by Belgrade, refused to recognise outcome: Serbian President Tadic recognised result, but Serbian PM Kostunica remained silent. EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana, welcomed referendum conduct and recognised outcome.

Nepal

New government and Maoists met for first peace talks since 2003. Sides agreed to ceasefire and code of conduct which commits both to multi-party system, elections for constituent assembly and end to provocations. Talks due early June. Previously government dropped terrorism charges against Maoists and released hundreds from prison. Parliament voted unanimously to restrict royal powers 18 May, putting Nepal Army under control of parliament, calling for royal family to pay taxes, parliament to name heir to throne and country to be secular state - but did not abolish monarchy. 18 members of PM Girija Prasad Koirala’s cabinet named after intense internal debate. Government scrapped curbs on press freedom and NGOs, and set up panel to investigate excesses of royal government. 9 top security officials suspended, but not head of army. Major OHCHR report released 25 May, detailing torture, illegal detention and suspected mass murder carried out by former Royal Nepal Army in 2003.

Nigeria

Affirmation of constitutional process as President Obasanjo announced would step down in 2007 after senate rejected constitutional amendment to allow controversial third term. Obasanjo later reshuffled senior security staff. Shell refused to pay $1.5 billion environmental damages to Ijaw community in Niger Delta, as ordered by court in February, pending appeal. Violence continued in region, with alleged militants killing U.S. oil worker and 6 police in separate incidents, as Ijaw rebel groups threatened joint attacks.

Solomon Islands

Situation improved after opposition leader Sogavare won secret parliamentary ballot 4 May, following April mass riots  which forced resignation of Snyder Rini. Australia to scale down troop presence from 400 to 140.

July 2006

Risk Alerts

Israel/Occupied Territories

Israel/Occupied Territories Tensions rose dramatically as Israeli military launched operation in Gaza Strip following kidnapping by Palestinian militants of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit. Hamas called for soldier not to be harmed but released in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. Israeli PM Olmert rejected negotiations for release and threatened escalation. Israeli troops entered Gaza 28 June, 3 days after Palestinian raid on Kerem Shalom army post; subsequently arrested 8 Palestinian ministers and at least 20 legislative council members in West Bank. Earlier, Hamas and Fatah reached agreement on “Prisoners Initiative” implicitly backing 2-state solution and avoiding prospect of 26 July referendum promised by Abbas if Hamas rejected document. At least 13 Palestinian civilians killed in Israeli air strikes in Gaza in month. Hamas ended informal 16-month ceasefire following killing of 7 members of Palestinian family on Gaza beach by suspected Israeli shelling. EU announced temporary aid mechanism to channel €100 million to Occupied Territories, bypassing Hamas-led government.

Somalia

Somalia Islamic Courts militia seized control over Mogadishu 8 June, driving out U.S.-backed Alliance for the Restoration of Peace and Counter-Terrorism; later consolidated control over most of south. Talks in Khartoum between Courts and transitional government led to mutual recognition and de facto ceasefire 22 June. But choice of radical cleric Hassan Dahir Aweys to head new Consultative Council of Islamic Courts may prove explosive and derail further talks. U.S. ruled out direct relations with Aweys and highlighted fears country could become radical Islamist training ground. IGAD and AU pressed ahead with plans for peace support mission over strong objections of Courts militia, while Courts claimed Ethiopian military incursion as Ethiopia consolidated border presence.

Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka Violence continued to surge throughout north and east, risking escalation into full scale combat. Attacks included 15 June mine blast on bus carrying civilians in North Central Province, killing 64. Government blamed LTTE and launched retaliatory air strikes against rebel headquarters in Kilinochchi and positions in north and northeast. Catholic clergy blamed government forces for attack on church in Pesalai 17 June; 5 killed. LTTE suicide bomber killed third most senior army officer Major General Parami Kulathunge and 3 others 26 June. LTTE demanded removal of Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission monitors from Sweden, Denmark and Finland by early September in reaction to EU placing LTTE on terror list in May, but agreed to protect monitors in north.

Deterioating Situations

Afghanistan

Afghanistan Civilian, military and insurgent casualties continued to rise steeply amid intense fighting. U.S.-led coalition and Afghan forces launched Operation Mountain Thrust 15 June aimed at extending government control to south and east: over 60 suspected Taliban fighters reported killed. President Karzai criticised for appointment of police officers with history of corruption and brutality and ordering 2 former governors in south to rearm their illegal militias. Commander of NATO-led security force pledged new tactic of “people-friendly force” to take effect when NATO assumes control from U.S. in July. NATO reportedly to increase troops from 9,000 to 17,000 by end July. Taliban claimed responsibility for explosion of vehicle carrying workers to coalition base in Kandahar, which killed 10. 2 attempted car bomb attacks targetted U.S. forces during U.S. Sec. State Rice’s visit 28 June.

Chad

Chad Relations with Sudan worsened while insecurity along border increased. Government forces and Chadian FUCD rebels renewed fighting. Janjaweed continued attacks on border towns and Sudanese SLA rebels continued to infiltrate refugee camps to forcibly recruit civilians, causing 10,000 to flee to Darfur within month. President Déby accused Sudan of exporting war and called for greater international support. Déby announced “internal political dialogue” with opposition after temporary civil servant strike. Unidentified rebels launched raid into northeast Central African Republic, clashing with CAR forces and peacekeepers; reports suggest Chadian and northern CAR rebels formed alliance.

Ethiopia/Eritrea

Ethiopia/Eritrea Blow to border dispute resolution as Eritrea refused to attend Boundary Commission meeting in The Hague 15 June, citing Ethiopia’s failure to implement 2002 agreement. 111 Ethiopian People’s Patriotic Front rebels, allegedly from Eritrea, reported killed by Ethiopian forces; Asmara denied reports. UN report found Eritrea providing military support for Somali-based insurgents attacking Ethiopia and for groups linked to Somali Islamic Courts militia.

Guinea

Guinea Country crippled after leading unions called “indefinite” general strike 8 June; crisis ended 9 days later when government agreed to pay raise for workers. Strike led to clashes 12 June between students and security forces, killing 11 in 3 cities and prompting military patrols in capital.

Macedonia

Macedonia Campaign for 5 July general election marred by violence. Series of incidents between 2 main Albanian parties, Democratic Union for Integration (DUI) and Democratic Party of Albanians, included several shootings, a bulldozer attack on DUI’s Saraj office 15 June and grenade attack on DUI’s Struga office 17 June. U.S. Ambassador Milovanovic and EU Special Representative Fouéré held meeting with party leaders 20 June resulting in joint statement denouncing violence. NATO Secretary General de Hoop Scheffer had earlier warned election must be “110% free and fair” or could jeopardise Euro-Atlantic integration.

Morocco

Morocco Government launched unprecedented nationwide crackdown on Islamic Justice and Charity opposition movement, after group launched new open recruitment campaign. Authorities raided offices and arrested over 2,000 activists, most of whom quickly released.

North Caucasus (non-Chechnya)

North Caucasus (non-Chechnya) Ingushetia saw increasing political violence and lawlessness. Musa Nalygiyev, head of special operations police in Ingushetia, killed with his 3 children and 2 others by unknown gunmen 9 June; in almost simultaneous attack senior local administrator Galina Gubina, coordinator of ethnic Russian return program, also shot dead. Ingushetian health minister survived attack by unknown gunmen 1 June; 3 security force members killed in other attacks. Army launched offensive in south 11 June; 3 rebels reported killed while separatists claimed at least 15 soldiers died. In Daghestan, 2 senior police officers killed 21 June. In Kabardino-Balkaria, parliament approved Russian Andrei Yarin as new PM after resignation of Gennady Gubin and government.

North Korea

North Korea U.S. intelligence suggesting NK preparing to test intercontinental ballistic missile caused widespread alarm and strong statements from Washington and Tokyo. U.S. announced it would deploy interceptor missiles in Japan. NK delegate to UN said North wants to negotiate directly with Washington: Pyongyang issued invitation to Assistant Sec. State Hill to visit, but offer quickly rebuffed. Japan’s House of Representatives passed bill allowing economic sanctions if NK fails to help resolve abductions dispute.

Senegal

Senegal Fighting intensified in Casamance region along border with Gambia between rival factions of Movement of the Democratic Forces of Casamance; 100 rebels reported killed.

Sudan

Sudan Implementation of Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA) faltered as rebel divisions widened. Members of SLA Minawi faction announced suspension of DPA implementation, suggesting tacit split with Minawi ahead of his delegation’s visit to Khartoum for talks. Violent clashes between SLA factions further hindered Darfur humanitarian access. Joint commission inaugurated to monitor DPA ceasefire, but no action taken. President Bashir continued to refuse “colonial” UN Darfur peacekeeping mission, suggested alternate Sudanese force. UNSG Annan to press matter at AU Summit 1 July, but other UN official said no force feasible before January 2007. ICC lead prosecutor announced compilation of “Darfur crimes database”, said will prosecute “large-scale atrocities”; Sudan claimed ICC has no jurisdiction. South Sudan President Machar continued to arrange peace talks between Uganda and LRA rebels, as alleged LRA attack on Juba killed 9. In east, Khartoum signed ceasefire pact 19 June and agreed to July talks with Eastern Front rebels demanding greater autonomy.

Improved Situations

Liberia

Liberia Positive signs of stabilisation continued. UN Security Council lifted timber but maintained diamond sanctions, acknowledging increased fiscal control over resource industries but seeking further reforms; also partially lifted arms embargo to equip new national police and security forces. Truth and Reconciliation Commission began to investigate human rights violations in 14-year civil war 22 June.

Mali

Mali Government announced peace deal with Tuareg rebels 30 June following Algerian-brokered talks between rebels and government. Rebels reportedly dropped demands for greater autonomy for northeast in exchange for poverty reduction; signing expected early July.

Mauritania

Mauritania Referendum, establishing structure for March 2007 presidential election, backed by 97% with 76% turnout according to official figures 25 June; constitutional amendments limit presidents to serving two 5-year terms. Authorities detained 5 relatives of former President Ould Sid’Ahmed Taya suspected of plotting to sabotage referendum. 6 Islamists who repudiated former involvement with Algerian Salafi Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC) released by Nouakchott

Peru

Peru Presidential runoff poll 4 June deemed free and fair by EU and OAS. Former President Garcia won with 53% of vote, defeating nationalist candidate Humala whose party won largest share of seats in April congressional elections. Venezuelan President Chavez declared Garcia’s victory fraudulent, aggravating relations between countries.

August 2006

Risk Alerts

Israel/Occupied Territories

Conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, triggered by 25 June abduction of Corporal Shalit, escalated following breakout of new conflict with Hizbollah (see Lebanon, below). Israel Defence Forces (IDF) launched incursions, air strikes and bombardments in Gaza aimed at ending rocket attacks on Israeli towns and forcing militants to unconditionally release captured Israeli soldier. Attacks killed 150 Palestinians, approx. half civilians; 1 Israeli soldier killed. Several Palestinian government ministries and power and water plants destroyed, risking further humanitarian crisis. Israel arrested almost all Hamas cabinet members and parliamentarians. UN Emergency Relief Coordinator Jan Egeland, described month-long offensive as “disproportionate use of force”. Assault prompted international calls for restraint, but UN Security Council resolution urging Israel to halt Gaza offensive vetoed by U.S. International efforts to achieve prisoner exchange and mutual cessation of hostilities unsuccessful.

Lebanon

Full scale conflict erupted following brazen cross-border raid by Lebanon-based Hizbollah 12 July abducting 2 and killing 8 soldiers in Israel, with over 750 Lebanese and 51 Israelis now dead, more than half a million Lebanese civilians displaced, and real risk of further escalation and destabilisation. Israel responded to abductions with sea, land and air blockade, attacks on Hizbollah positions in south Lebanon and country-wide bombing of infrastructure. Hizbollah replied with indiscriminate rocket attacks into northern Israel, killing civilians in Haifa, Tiberias, Afula and Nazareth. U.S. and UK claimed Syrian and Iranian support for Hizbollah and backed Israeli actions, while rest of international community criticised Israeli “disproportionate” use of force and called for ceasefire. Despite repeated advance warnings to IDF, 4 UN observers killed by Israeli air strike on their post in town of Khiam 25 July. Israeli PM Olmert initially declared offensive to continue until soldiers freed, Hizbollah disarmed and Lebanese army in control of south, but after hundreds of Lebanese civilians killed, including more than 54 in 30 July bombardment of Qana, and 51 Israeli deaths, including 18 civilians, Israel publicly mooted international force in southern Lebanon. After refusing to support call for immediate ceasefire at 26 July Rome summit, U.S. Sec. State Rice stated intention to lobby for UNSC resolution for “urgent ceasefire, political principles that provide for a long-term settlement and the authorisation of an international force to support the Lebanese army in keeping the peace”. UN request 30 July for 3-day “aid truce” rejected by Israel. Bombing pause, agreed by Israel after Qana devastation, not sustained. Serious risk of further escalation, with Israel mobilising 30,000 reserves and cabinet unanimously agreeing 31 July to widen ground offensive, and Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah saying ready to move attacks further south beyond Haifa; claims made that Hizbollah possesses longer-range ballistic missiles capable of reaching Tel Aviv.

Somalia

Country on brink of civil war, with fears conflict could spread to wider region. Ethiopian troops entered to support transitional federal government (TFG), with Eritrean support of Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) confirmed by Islamists’ leader Aweys and UN; denied by Eritrean President Afwerki. Intensified fighting in Mogadishu early in month killed 140 as UIC routed last of U.S.-backed anti-terrorism alliance. Prospects for power sharing between UIC and TFG deteriorated sharply with talks to bring sides together on hold: UIC refused to participate with Ethiopian troops in country, while TFG accused UIC of breaking June agreement against military expansion. TFG weakened as 19 of 275 MPs resigned 27 July, citing loss of faith in TFG’s commitment to peace negotiations. PM Gedi narrowly survived no-confidence vote 30 July. Pro-government demonstrators rioted 28 July in Baidoa after minister shot by unidentified gunman. UN monitors confirmed arms shipments from Ethiopia and Eritrea arriving in Somalia, after UN Security Council said willing to consider easing arms embargo to enable TFG to respond to security issues 13 July.

Sri Lanka

Government troops launched ground assault on LTTE 31 July in Trincomalee after 4 days of air strikes to gain control of waterway. Over 35 killed and risk of major escalation as LTTE considered moves “act of war”. Clashes and extra-judicial killings continued in north and east throughout month. Diplomatic efforts renewed late July but failed to calm situation. LTTE rejected call from Sweden to reconsider 1 September deadline for truce monitors from EU member states to leave following EU listing LTTE as terror organisation: Finland and Denmark announced departure of monitors. President Rajipaksa announced formation of committee of experts to discuss devolution in northeast, alongside all-party conference to examine constitutional approaches to conflict.

Deterioating Situations

Colombia

FARC violence increased in apparent show of force before President Uribe’s second term starts in August. FARC killed 10, kidnapped 170, in Riosucio, Chocó province, while intense fighting with government forces near Ecuadorian border displaced 1,300. FARC attack shut off oil flow from second largest pipeline, 2 oil workers killed. Constitutional Court released full text of ruling on Justice and Peace Law, as police launched program to monitor demobilised paramilitaries.

Côte d’Ivoire

Violent opposition by pro-government militias to voter registration process made postponement of October elections increasingly likely. President Gbagbo supporters blocked mobile voter identification sites and led violent protests, barricading streets of Abidjan 18 July; violence killed several in coastal towns. Pro-government militias began disarming 26 July in advance of 7 August deadline; ex-rebel Forces Nouvelles will only disarm after militia disarmament. UNSG Annan said UN decision on poll date and any extension of Gbagbo term to be given mid-September.

Haiti

Surge in violence and kidnappings destabilised country after period of relative calm. 21 civilians massacred in Grand Ravine slum by unidentified gunmen; 8 killed in series of clashes between armed gangs and UN peacekeepers in Port-au-Prince; 30 kidnappings reported. Thousands of former President Aristide supporters protested in capital 15 July, calling for return from exile. 25 July donor conference received new commitments to support Préval government but fell far short of his 5-year $7 billion request.

India (non-Kashmir)

Coordinated bombings on 7 Mumbai commuter trains 11 July killed over 200. 4 Indian Muslims arrested. No major jihadi group claimed responsibility but officials in Maharashtra believe Pakistani connection. Government, criticised by opposition Bharitiya Janata Party as soft on terrorism, halted normalisation process with Pakistan; PM Singh called on General Musharraf to fulfil promises to eliminate terror networks. Maoist violence continued: 8 rebels, including rebel chief, reportedly killed in southern Andhra Pradesh state 23 July; rebels stormed government relief camp in Chhattisgarh state, 17 killed.

Iraq

Ongoing deterioration as U.S. military estimated 40% more major attacks in Baghdad in July than in previous months. Sectarian violence surged with approx. 100 civilians killed per day; 48 slaughtered when mortars fired into market in town of Mahmoudiya south of Baghdad 17 July, and 53 next day by car bomb in Kufa. New PM Maliki’s security strategy, endorsed by President Bush in June, undermined by continuing violence. In trip to Washington and London, Maliki conceded security situation worsened in 2 months since he took charge, and unlikely to improve. Bush announced 4,000 U.S. troops to be redeployed to Baghdad to combat deteriorating security situation there. Iraqi Government and UN announced launch of International Compact with Iraq.

Kashmir

India halted normalisation process with Pakistan after 11 July Mumbai bombings. Further progress is conditional on tangible progress of Pakistani moves against banned jihadi groups. India captured Mudassir Gojri, top militant commander of Lashkar-e-Tayyaba blamed for numerous tourist killings including July attacks that killed 8. Suspected militants shot dead 4 Hindus in Indian Kashmir 13 July. Sakina Itoo, leader of National Conference party, survived 8 July grenade attack in which 5 supporters killed. New government installed in Pakistani-administered Kashmir after elections opposition parties claimed were rigged. Sardar Attiq Ahmed Khan, head of All Jammu and Kashmir Muslim Conference, sworn in as PM 24 July.

North Korea

Tensions rose dramatically on Korean Peninsula after 7 test missiles launched 5 July. Japan and U.S. led outcry: UN Security Council voted unanimously 15 July to require prevention of transfer of missile or WMD items, but did not invoke Chapter VII after China and Russia amended Japanese draft. Pyongyang remained defiant, rejecting resolution, claiming right to self defence and threatening “physical” response. U.S., China, Russia, Japan and South Korea decided to move with “5-party” talks if North does not attend. North-South ministerial talks broke down after North refused to discuss launches; South halted food aid. NK officials refused to join security talks on sidelines of ASEAN regional forum in Malaysia.

Sudan

Implementation of 5 May Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA) at standstill, while rebels’ split over DPA deepened and infighting increased. Sudanese military reported to be supporting attacks by SLA Minnawi faction, only group to sign DPA, against newly formed National Redemption Front (NRF) rebel group (Chad-backed alliance of JEM and other signatories). Abdel Wahid replaced by Abdel Shafi as head of splinter SLA faction, may ally with NRF. Government and Janjaweed militias attacked NRF bases in Jebel Moon and Kulkul despite ceasefire in west, displacing hundreds. NRF attack on Hamrat al-Sheikh in North Kordofan killed 12, fueled fear Darfur conflict could spread across Sudan. AU agreed to extend AMIS mandate to end 2006; donors later pledged $220 million, mostly in kind, to keep beleaguered mission alive. Donors continued to push UN re-hatting; UNSG Annan suggested 31 July UN force of 24,000: rejected by Khartoum. U.S. President Bush met with both Minnawi and VP Kiir to discuss peace processes in South and Darfur. In South, 15 killed in Rubkona in clashes between Sudanese army and SPLA 22 July. CPA Assessment and Evaluation Commission reported lack of progress implementing agreement, particularly in oil-rich Abyei. Up to 70 killed in inter-clan fighting in Lakes state over access to water and pasture. In east, second round peace talks mediated by Eritrea began between government and East Sudan Front rebels.

Improved Situations

Angola

Government signed ceasefire agreement with Cabinda separatist umbrella group Forum for Dialogue, ending 30-year conflict and providing greater autonomy for enclave. Agreement includes immediate reduction of government troops in Cabinda, and amnesty for separatists to be approved by parliament.

Cyprus

In surprise move, Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders Papadopoulos and Talat held talks in buffer zone, mediated by UN Under Sec. Gen. Gambari 8 July. Sides agreed to confidence-building steps including establishment of bilateral technical committees and expert working groups; exchanged lists of issues for expert discussion 31 July. Moves came after 2 leaders met to discuss missing persons 3 July in first direct meeting since 2004 failed Annan Plan referendum. 

DR Congo

General elections 30 July – first free polls in 40 years – reported generally peaceful; full results expected end August. Concerns remain of challenges then igniting unrest. Questions raised over electoral irregularities, including excess 5 million ballots, but Catholic Church and some presidential candidates lifted calls for boycott days before poll. Violence spiked in pre-election rallies in Kinshasa and Kivus, killing 11; High Media Authority offices plundered and 1 journalist murdered amidst fears of media intimidation. Worst fighting in recent months between army and militias in parts of Ituri; UN/DRC forces suffered setback after rebels retook town of Tchei following UN withdrawal end June. In positive move, MRC rebels in Ituri accepted amnesty and agreed to integrate into national army; government claimed 4,000 surrendered arms by end of 2-month voluntary disarmament. North Kivu militia leader Laurent Nkunda pledged not to disrupt elections and created political-military party in alliance with MRC. Katangese Tigers reportedly arriving from Angola along border heightened security concerns as country awaits election results.

Timor-Leste

Situation showed signs of improvement as former Foreign and Defence Minister Ramos-Horta sworn in as new PM 10 July, prompting more rebels to surrender weapons. New cabinet sworn in 14 July with PM retaining defence portfolio. TL asked UN Security Council for 800 international police for 2 to 5 years. UN Special Envoy told UNSC substantial long-term military and police presence required. Peacekeepers arrested 20 for illegal possession of weapons, including rebel leader Reinado. UN commission of inquiry set October deadline for its investigations into April-May violence. Former PM Alkatiri questioned over allegations