Flashpoint's Insight & Analysis section presents selected commentary on a range of issues and attempts to include a variety of perspectives. Some analyses are written by Global Focus staff, others come from contributors, or are re-published from other sources.
IRAN: THE DRUMS OF WAR
IRAN: "All Options Are On The Table"
Author: James F. Mattil - April 15, 2006
Recent leaks regarding US plans for a possible pre-emptive nuclear strike on Iran have raised the stakes and the volume of debate surrounding Iran's alleged quest for nuclear capability. Is the West being duped again and are we ignoring the most viable options for resolving the presumed crisis?
IRAQ: WAR, INSURGENCY & PEACE
Assessing the Iraqi Elections’ Impact on Terrorism and Insurgency
Author: Mahan Abedin, Terrorism Monitor, Jamestown Foundation
http://www.jamestown.org/terrorism/news/article.php?issue_id=3570
While the elections were held successfully and the political process in Iraq now seems irreversible, there is also little doubt that the country is being steadily transformed into an Islamic state. There will be a greater temptation on both sides of the sectarian divide to stage sensational attacks on U.S. interests in Iraq, on a par with the October 1983 bombing of the Marines HQ in Beirut.
The Salafi-Jihadist Movement in Iraq: Recruitment Methods and Arab Volunteers
By Murad Al-Shishani, Terrorism Monitor
http://www.jamestown.org/terrorism/news/article.php?articleid=2369842
The Zawahiri-Zarqawi Letter: Al-Qaeda’s Tactical and Theater-of-War Concerns
Author: Michael Scheuer, Terrorism Mnitor
http://www.jamestown.org/terrorism/news/article.php?search=1&articleid=2369830
Although debate continues as to the authenticity of the letter, Scheurer, a CIA analyst in charge of the Al-Qaeda unit, argues that the themes are consistent with al-Qaeda's strategy and should be taken as a valid warning of future events.
From Belfast to Baghdad: Lessons from Northern Ireland
Author: James F. Mattil
Britain struggled to make peace in Northern Ireland of over 35 years with much higher troop levels than the US has in Iraq. In neither case were th results effective. With troop levels as much as 400,00 too low, the US is relied on superior military forces and firepower to quell the Iraq insurgency - a sure-fire way to alienate citizens.
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM
Bounding the Global War on Terrorism
Author: Jeffrey Record
Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB207.pdf
The author examines three features of the war on terrorism as currently defined and conducted: (1) the administration's postulation of the terrorist threat, (2) the scope and feasibility of U.S. war aims, and (3) the war's political, fiscal, and military sustainability. He believes that the war on terrorism--as opposed to the campaign against al-Qaeda--lacks strategic clarity, embraces unrealistic objectives, and may not be sustainable over the long haul. He calls for downsizing the scope of the war on terrorism to reflect concrete U.S. security interests and the limits of American military power.
The Al-Qaeda Dossier
Edited by James F. Mattil, 2005
A comprehensive review of the Al-Qaeda terrorist group and Usama bin Laden. The Dossier describes the roots of Islamic radicalism and traces the evolution of Bin Laden's grievances from his time as an Afghan mujahadeen, his return to Saudi Arabia, deportation to Sudan and back to Aghanistan.
Inside Pakistan's Madrasses
Author: Farhana Ali, Terrorism Focus, Jamestown Foundation http://www.jamestown.org/terrorism/news/article.php?articleid=2369861
A rare and too short, glimpse into a little known world of Islamic religious teaching.
What in the Name of God? Religion, Fear & Terrorism
Author: James F. Mattil, 2002
Examines similarities between Muslim, Jewish and Chrsitian fundamentalism and describes how each exploits personal fear to control followers and instigate violence in the name of God.
Radical Islam in Latin America
Author: Chris Zambelis, Terrorism Monitor
http://www.jamestown.org/terrorism/news/article.php?articleid=2369844
A diverse array of criminal organizations active in the region—from local drug gangs to radical Islamists—demonstrates that weak institutions, political instability, corruption, and poverty provide ample opportunities for groups such as al-Qaeda and others to form working relationships.
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Muslin women gahter beneath Hizbollah banner |
ISRAEL & PALESTINE SHOCK NEWS: HAMAS WINS! World leaders are stunned at a predictable outcome. It's time for a quick reality check and maybe they'll see the Hamas victory as the proverbial "window of opportunity." Can President Bush accept the tiumph of democracy, smile and shake hands with the winners and dig out his road map to nowhere? The GW Bush Middle East Road Map After decades of US attempts to broker peace deals between Israel and Palestine, the Bush administration gave Ariel Sharon a road mao and left him to find his own way to a unilateral solution.In the absence of US engagement little progress has been made toward resolving a key issue that engenders anti-American sentiment and fuels Islamist terrorism. The Mitchell Plan WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION Weapons of Mass Destruction Al-Qaeda's WMD Strategy After the U.S. Intervention in Afghanistan Al-Qaeda and WMD: A Primer New threats by rootless jihadis to attack Western interests are appearing on jihadist forums more frequently than ever.Currently the disconnect between motivation and capabilities is far too wide, making an attack in the foreseeable future highly unlikely. But in the mid- to long-term three factors in particular; namely increasing Muslim alienation with U.S. policies, growing proliferation of knowledge and technology and the increasingly rootless and ubiquitous nature of global jihad, are likely to converge, thus rendering a WMD attack all but inevitable. NORTHERN IRELAND: PEACE BREAKS OUT Northern Ireland: Parades & Marching Season Recent events and the future of Northern Ireland Curry reviews the lack of progress and obstacles to establishing a functional government since adopting the Good Friday Peace Agreement in 1998. Unfortunately, the report perpetuates a number of myths and misconceptions that plagued attempts to find peace for more than 30 years.
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Open Source Inetlligence
SHOCK NEWS: HAMAS WINS!
The Inevitable Evolution Begins
By James F. Mattil
Managing Editor
Global Focus
26 January 2006
GAZA – “The Islamic militant group Hamas swept to victory over the long-dominant Fatah party on Thursday in Palestinian parliamentary polls, a political earthquake that could bury any hope for peace talks with Israel soon. Hamas won an overwhelming majority in the 132-seat legislature, taking 76 seats to Fatah's 43 in Wednesday's election, the official vote count showed. It gives Hamas the power to shape and possibly even lead the next cabinet.” reported Reuters.
Reaction was swift and predictable.
Israeli politicians from across the political spectrum said there could be no relations with a group that has been responsible for scores of deadly attacks against Israelis and is listed as a terror organization by the United States and the European Union. Meanwhile, Benjamin Netanyahu remarked that, "Today Hamastan was formed."
The United States says it will not deal with Palestinian leaders who dispute Israel's right to exist. "If your platform is the destruction of Israel, it means you're not a partner in peace, and we're interested in peace," said George Bush. "You cannot have one foot in politics and another in terror," echoed US Secretary of State Rice.
Only Hanan Ashwari, a moderate Palestinian legislator, who won re-election seemed to have any perspective on the shocking results, calling the election “a dramatic turning point.” She added that she is concerned the militants could impose a fundamentalist social agenda and lead the Palestinians into international isolation. Adding some perspective, she said the outcome was a result of Fatah's corruption, Israel's tough measures and international indifference to the plight of the Palestinians.
The election results should also have been predictable.
Since taking office the Bush administration has turned its back on the Middle East problem, handing over a road map to nowhere and leaving Israeli leader Ariel Sharon in the driver’s seat. The Bush team demonized Yasir Arafat, castigated Fatah and the Palestinian Authority, ignored Palestinian representatives, and slashed foreign aid to Palestine.
The Israeli Defense Forces surrounded Arafat and denied him freedom of movement until his death, while Israel continued building a Zionist version of the Berlin Wall to formalize its claim to ownership of the West Bank, seized by force in 1967.
Ashwari is right; the world demonstrated indifference to the Palestinian’s plight and Palestinians obviously took notice. Apparently. they also realized that American aid was little more than a political lever to buy them off, while Hamas continued to provide much-needed social programs and humanitarian assistance.
Maybe, Palestinians have decided they’ve simply had enough international support or assistance from an America, portrayed as an honest peace broker. Maybe, they have decided to reward Hamas for its loyalty with their political support. And maybe, after all these tortuous years they’ve decided to serve notice that they will not be bought-off and manipulated any more.
It’s relatively easy to understand why Palestinians support Hamas. The real question is why Israel and the US are in a snit. After all, isn’t this how conflicts end?
Surely, no one expected Palestinians to turn their prayer rugs around a bow to the West in surrender. Protracted conflicts don’t end by forcing one side to surrender; conflicts begin to end when the most entrenched adversaries are finally brought into the political process.
That’s what happened with the ANC in South Africa, the IRA in Northern Ireland and with the rebels in East Timor (now Timor Leste). That’s why negotiations are continuing between the Sri Lankan government and the LTTE guerrillas. That’s why the US Military has opened dialogues with Iraqi insurgents.
The next months will become increasingly important for the Middle East. In an era when Arafat and Sharon are gone and as Israel struggles to chart its political footing, the international community has an opportunity for progress - if only they will recognize it as that.
While defending his association with confessed criminal Jack Abramof, President Bush acknowledged that one of his jobs is “to shake hands with people – and smile.” Hamas won a democratic election in the troubled Middle East; let’s hope Mr. Bush can now support the concept of democracy, shake hands and smile with the winners, and begin the inevitable, evolutionary process of inclusion, negotiation and compromise.