Is Mexico on the path to becoming a failed state? One of the world’s largest economies, Mexico relies on tourism, oil, agricultural and manufacturing exports, but its illicit trade in drugs and the related violence are threatening the viability of the country.

Once the unwelcome home to drug cartels and violence, Colombia has turned the corner by defeating the cartels and restoring order and security. Meanwhile, Mexico has inherited both the drug cartels and their associated violence. Even without anti-government insurgencies, Mexico has descended into a cycle of violence, costing thousands of lives and threatening the country’s vulnerable economy. Mexico’s problems are intertwined with the United States.

Mexican cartels smuggle illegal drugs into the US; the money derived from drugs has been spent purchasing US weapons that are smuggled back into Mexico. These arms have been used to threaten and intimidate Mexican authorities. As the Mexican government has cracked down on the cartels, the drug lords have launched a vicious counter-attack. Overflowing with drug money, the cartels have been able to intimidate and/or corrupt police and judges on a massive scale. Since Felipe Calderon took office as president, over 35,000 people have been killed in the ensuing drug wars.

In 2010 alone, more than 15,300 people have died.

The Obama administration launched a $1.4 billion, Merida Initiative, a multi-year aid program to help combat Mexico’s drug cartels. Meanwhile, Mexico’s violence has spread into the US, especially into the border states of Texas, new Mexico, Arizona and California.

“In February 2011, the Pentagon began flying high-altitude, unarmed drones over Mexican skies in hopes of collecting information to turn over to Mexican law enforcement agencies. A Homeland Security drone was said to have helped Mexican authorities find several suspects linked to the Feb. 15 killing of Jaime Zapata, a United States Immigration and Customs Enforcement Immigration agent,’ reported the New York Times.

The Times also posed noted that, “Americans, from border state governors to military analysts in Washington, have begun to question whether the spillover violence presents a threat to their own national security and, to the outrage of many Mexicans, whether the state itself will crumble under the strain of the war.”

The Calderon government admits that the cartels have attempted their own “states” where they levy taxes, set-up roadblocks and enforce their own “perverse codes of behavior.” The Mexican government has identified 233 of these so-called "zones of impunity,'' where crime is largely uncontrolled.

One of these zones appears to be Ciudad Juárez, (population 1.7 million), just across the border from El Paso, Texas. Juarez personifies the Mexican government's failed attempts to rein in the drug gangs; thousands of citizens have been killed, while tens of thousands of residents attempt to flee the danger, with many seeking illegal entry into the US as an acceptable risk of random death at home. And the problem is apparently even worse than reported. The cartels have also threatened and killed journalists on either side of the border, forcing them to self-censor the news. The Mexican government has deployed more than 40,000 troops nationwide to combat the cartels. Yet reports indicate that the cartels, in turn, have recruited as many of 100,000 defectors from the military.

The Cartels

Mexico, a major drug producing and transit country, is the main foreign supplier of marijuana and a major supplier of methamphetamine to the United States.

Although Mexico accounts for only a small share of worldwide heroin production,
it supplies a large share of heroin consumed in the United States. An estimated 90%
of cocaine entering the United States transits Mexico. Violence in the border region
has affected U.S. citizens. More than 60 Americans were kidnapped in Nuevo
Laredo, and in July 2007.

Although Mexican drug cartels, or drug trafficking organizations, have existed for quite some time, they have become more powerful since the demise of Colombia's Cali and Medellín cartels in the 1990s.

Mexican drug cartels now dominate the wholesale illicit drug market in the United States. Arrests of key cartel leaders, particularly in the Tijuana and Gulf cartels, have led to increasing drug violence as cartels fight for control of the trafficking routes into the United States.

The Gulf and Sinaloa cartels reportedly use personal "enforcer gangs" to perpetuate violence and intimidate Mexican citizens and public officials.

According to the Mexican government there are seven drug cartels operating in Mexico. The Mexican government reports that the major cartels – Gulf, Sinaloa, and Juárez -- are present in much of Mexico.

The Juárez cartel has been found in 21 Mexican states and its principle bases are: Culiacán, Sinaloa; Monterrey, Nuevo León; the cities of Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua, and Ojinaga, Chihuahua; Mexico City; Guadalajara, Jalisco; Cuernavaca, Morelos; and Cancún, Quintana Roo.

The Sinaloa cartel has a presence in 17 states, with important centers in Mexico City; Tepic, Nayarit; Toluca and Cuautitlán, Mexico State; and most of the state of Sinaloa.

The Gulf cartel is present in 13 states with important areas of operation in the cities of Nuevo Laredo, Miguel Alemán, Reynosa, and Matamoros in the northern state of Tamaulipas. The Gulf cartel also has important operations in Monterrey in Nuevo León; and Morelia in Michoacán.

In addition, the Tijuana cartel is present in at least 15 states with important areas of operation in Tijuana, Mexicali, Tecate, and Ensenada in Baja California and in parts of Sinaloa.

In recent years, the major cartels have formed alliances with one another; the two rival alliances now compete for turf. The Tijuana cartel formed an alliance with the Gulf cartel as a result of prison negotiations by their leaders. Several cartels have also formed an alliance known as "The Federation." The Federation is led by representatives of the Sinaloa, Juárez, and Valencia cartels. The cartels work together, but remain independent organizations.

From January 2000 through September 2006, the Mexican government arrested over 79,000 people on charges related to drug trafficking. Of these arrests, some 78,831 are low-level drug dealers. Mexico also arrested 15 cartel leaders, 74 lieutenants, 53 financial officers, and 428 hitmen (sicarios). Mexican authorities arrested nearly 10,000 people on drug-related charges from December 2006 through August 2007.

There is evidence that Mexican cartels are also increasing their relationships with prison and street gangs in the United States in order to facilitate drug trafficking within the United States as well as wholesale and retail distribution of the drugs.

In addition to drug trafficking, Mexican cartels have been tied to both human and arms trafficking, auto theft, and kidnaping. Mexican drug traffickers increasingly smuggle money back into Mexico in cars and trucks, likely due to the effectiveness of U.S. efforts at monitoring electronic money transfers.

Mexican law enforcement officials note that while the drug cartels may sometimes traffic persons who are willing to act as mules, they do not engage in large-scale human trafficking as that would add further risk to the transit of drug shipments.

Separate criminal groups focus on human trafficking. U.S. law enforcement officials report that the Tijuana cartel has been weakened due to the arrests and deaths of several cartel leaders, forcing the cartel to focus its energies on controlling trafficking routes through the corruption of Mexican law enforcement officials and intimidation measures, including kidnapping, torture, and murder.

Mexican cartels employ individuals and groups of enforcers, known as sicarios. The Mexican government arrested over 300 sicarios from January 2000 through September 2006, with Gulf cartel enforcers accounting for over one-quarter of arrests. This included 134 enforcers from the Gulf cartel, 107 from the Tijuana cartel, 98 from the Sinaloa cartel, 66 from the Juárez cartel, 15 from the Millennium cartel, 6 from the Oaxaca cartel, and 2 from the Colima cartel.

The Gulf cartel includes a group known as the Zetas. The Zetas are unique among drug enforcer gangs in that they operate "as a private army under the orders of Cárdenas' Gulf cartel, the first time a drug lord has had his own paramilitary."18 Most reports indicate that the Zetas were created by a group of 30 lieutenants and sublieutenants who deserted from the Mexican military's Special Air Mobile Force Group (Grupo Aeromovil de Fuerzas Especiales, GAFES) to the Gulf cartel in the late 1990s. As such, the Zetas were able to carry out more complex operations and use more sophisticated weaponry.

The Zetas were instrumental in the Gulf cartel's domination of the drug trade in Nuevo Laredo, and have fought to maintain the cartel's influence in that city following the 2003 arrest of its leader Osiel Cárdenas. Press reports have charged that these soldiers turned cartel enforcers were trained in the United States; however, the Washington Office on Latin America was unable to confirm this claim. The Zetas act as assassins for the Gulf cartel. They also traffic arms, kidnap, and collect payments for the cartel on its drug routes. In response to the Zetas, the Sinaloa cartel established its own heavily-armedenforcer gangs, the Negros and Pelones.

International Complications

The irony of the drug crisis is that the US is the market for Mexican drug traders and a primary source of weapons for the cartels. US drug users put up the money that's used to purchase weapons that are easily available due to lax US gun control regulations.

An apparent response would seem to be to strengthen US gun controls, but this conflicts with the constitutional rights of US citizens. The same citizens that staunchly defend gun rights, also rail against illegal aliens, the Mexican drug trade and the spill-over violence that seeps into American society. Further aggravating the political situation the US right-wing advocates also generally object to spending federal funds to assist foreign states.

The US has had extensive experience (good and bad) fighting the drug wars in Colombia and the Colombian experience also suggests lessons that could be applied in Mexico as well. One thing seems clear, building a longer, taller wall between the US and Mexico is not likely to prove successful. And one possible solution whose time may one day come, it the idea of legalizing and regulating marijuana. This could prove to be the lesser of many evils. The Netherlands seems not to be facing any of the many unintended consequences related to fighting drug wars. Meanwhile, Americans remain as steadfastly opposed to legalizing pot, as they are addicted to presecription drugs.

 

 

Capital: Mexico City
Area: 1,958,200 sq km
Population: 109,594,000